The very first four-seam fastball Noah Syndergaard threw in his new home ballpark whizzed in at exactly 95 mph. It was the eighth pitch of the game, and a first-pitch ball to Max Muncy in an April 3 exhibition game at Angel Stadium.
His fastball touched 95.6 mph that night against the Dodgers. It sat slightly slower. Syndergaard is a pitcher whose long hair, powerful demeanor and apt “Thor” nickname all present the aura of a fastball pitcher that will overpower you.
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It’s a perception not completely based in reality. But Syndergaard had always had a fastball to match the perceived persona.
After that exhibition game, the former Mets All-Star expressed assurance his fastball would come back in his first season since missing almost all of 2020 and 2021 because of Tommy John surgery. In 2017, it averaged 98.2 mph, according to Baseball Savant.
“I think as I get more comfortable with my delivery,” Syndergaard said at the time, “get more into game speed and get that adrenaline, we’ll see that velocity tick up.”
Syndergaard’s fastball velocity, though, has not appreciably risen. At least not yet. His last four starts have seen small upticks in average fastball velocity — peaking at an average of 95.2 mph against the Dodgers on Tuesday. He hasn’t thrown the pitch faster than 96.4 mph at any point this season. It averages 94.1 mph. His strikeout percentage is 16.4 this season — down from a career average of 25.7 percent. Players are whiffing on swings against Syndergaard just 21.9 percent of the time, compared to his career average of 27.9 percent.
The good news for Syndergaard is the perception of his strength has never been a fully accurate portrayal of why he’s had success. He’s been good because he has five pitches he can throw effectively. And he locates those pitches extremely well, walking batters in just 5.6 percent of plate appearances.
Syndergaard has a 3.53 ERA in his 10 starts this season. That includes just 35 strikeouts in 51 innings. But also only 13 walks and 47 hits. His ERA+ is 111, meaning he’s an above-average major-league starter.
The fastball, though, is slower now. There’s no telling if or when it will get faster. And while that’s definitely hampered his game and ability to dominate, it hasn’t eliminated his ability to be effective.
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“We don’t know what (the fastball) is going to end up being, because it’s still relatively near or close to rehab,” said Angels pitching coach Matt Wise. “I’m really happy with where the slider and the changeup are right now. Just trying to see what’s working that day and give the team a chance to win.”
Syndergaard’s fastball has almost never had good shape, it’s just been fast. Take a look at the movement and velocity on his fastball compared to league average, courtesy Statcast, and you’ll see it was the gas that kept it afloat for so long.
Syndergaard's Fastball vs League Average
Year
| MPH
| Vertical
| Horizontal
|
|---|---|---|---|
2016 | 5.3 | 0.3 | -1.6 |
2017 | 5.1 | 0.4 | 2.0 |
2018 | 4.4 | -1.0 | -0.1 |
2019 | 4.3 | -1.1 | -1.0 |
2021 | 0.4 | -3.2 | -1.9 |
2022 | 0.3 | -2.8 | -1.0 |
In 2017, for one shining moment, Syndergaard had a four-seam fastball that was above average in all facets, and he allowed a .286 slugging percentage on the pitch. He threw 30 innings that year and then never had above-average movement on his fastball again. This season, he’s allowed a .556 slugging on the pitch.
It’s tempting to put that decline all on the velocity of the pitch, but there are other pitchers with great shape on their fastball that are succeeding at similar or lesser velocities. Cristian Javier of the Astros throws almost a full tick slower than Syndergaard, but has six inches more ride on the fastball: He’s allowing a .264 slugging on his four-seamer this year. Diamondbacks starter Zac Gallen throws about the same velocity but has four-plus inches more ride, and has allowed a .319 slugging on the fastball.
This type of relationship between velocity and movement and league-wide outcomes is the underpinning of the Stuff+ model here on this site. Syndergaard’s minus shape and average velocity has him on the wrong side of the four-seam Stuff+ leaderboard.
Worst SP Four-Seamers by Stuff+
There’s some injury and age-related decline on this list, for sure, but Syndergaard seems to be healthy, and the velocity isn’t trending upward, so that probably isn’t why he’s been pitching decently despite a bad four-seamer.
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Brewers starter Aaron Ashby is known for his sinker, and that might be a bigger hint for Syndergaard’s future here: Thor’s sinker rates more decently than his four-seamer, around 58th out of the 143 that have been thrown at least 100 times, a little bit better than the sinker thrown by the Rangers’ Dane Dunning, as an example.
Could Syndergaard throw his sinker more often to avoid that slugging on the four-seamer? Possibly, but there’s still optimism from Angels coaches, past and present, that his fastball will return.
“I’ll take (him topping at 96.2 mph), that’s getting closer,” former Angels manager Joe Maddon said on June 6. “I just think, coming where he’s come from, having not pitched in a long time, I actually think it’s pretty good progress for him individually.”
In general, mixing it up with command is the way he’s been getting past this four-seam problem, so more sinkers could make sense. Despite a reputation for being a thrower and not a pitcher, Syndergaard has always rated highly for his command.
Coming off the short 2020 season, he was in the top 40 among starters by Command+, a metric by STATS Perform that used scouts and scouting reports to judge how good a pitcher was at executing what he was attempting to do with a pitch. This year, we have Location+, which asks a simpler question: Which pitchers are good at putting pitches in good locations, once adjusted for count and pitch type? Syndergaard does even better.
Best Starting Pitchers by Location+
Player
| LOCATIONplus
| STUFFplus
|
|---|---|---|
109.8 | 82.5 | |
108.3 | 104.6 | |
107.9 | 96.6 | |
107.6 | 115.5 | |
107.6 | 100.6 | |
107.6 | 95.0 | |
107.4 | 114.4 | |
107.3 | 102.8 | |
107.3 | 99.3 | |
107.1 | 90.4 |
Aaron Nola and Zach Eflin also did very well by Command+, so this passes the sniff test and some of the better command artists in the game, even if Syndergaard’s inclusion surprises some. What separates Syndergaard further from this list (and from someone like Michael Pineda) is the number of pitches he can command. Only Brandon Woodruff, Jameson Taillon, Nola, Eflin and Syndergaard have four pitches they’ve thrown 50-plus times with a 105+ Location+ this season.
Included in that group for Syndergaard is the curve, which also rates above the slider when it comes to Stuff+, but is clearly his fourth pitch. Could Syndergaard also replace some four-seamers with curves to improve his ability to keep batters guessing?
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“Traditionally we really try to narrow in on the delivery and the slider,” Wise said when asked if Syndergaard might start throwing more curveballs — a seldomly used, but effective pitch.” The slider has progressed. It’s trending in the direction that we’re happy with. We’ve talked a little bit over the last couple weeks about now that we’ve checked some of those boxes, let’s move on to the curveball.”
The right-hander has been throwing the slider harder again recently, which is as important for breaking balls as it is for fastballs. That 85 mph mark is important, as sliders over 85 mph are effective no matter their shape. Not surprisingly, as Syndergaard’s velocity on the slider has improved, so has his Stuff+ rating. In his last start, he had the best Stuff+ on the slider (100) in his last six starts.
Syndergaard has had an up-and-down season. In a start against the Rangers on May 16, the right-hander recorded just two outs and gave up six runs (four earned) in 42 pitches. In his next outing, also against the Rangers, he went eight innings and allowed one run.
That’s the most jarring example of a pitcher whose season has been defined by hard-to-explain inconsistent outings.
The tally, thus far, shows Syndergaard doesn’t look like the same pitcher he once was. But the irony is that it’s the underlying strengths that he’s always relied on that have allowed him to be mostly effective. Locating pitches. Throwing a strong mix of different pitches.
Whether his fastball ever aligns with his Thor vibe remains to be seen. But in the meantime, he’s coping without an effective version of that pitch.
“As the season goes on, I think it will creep up more and more, just as I get more comfortable working on my delivery,” Syndergaard said. “So yeah, I’m not too concerned about it.”
(Photo: Frank Franklin II / Associated Press)
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